The nominees (honored, I’m sure):
Picture, drama:
The Descendants **
The Help
Hugo *
The Ides of March
Moneyball *
War Horse **
Notes: I will be stunned if Hugo, which is a love letter about the power of film in a particularly foreign vein, doesn’t win this, but I suppose it’s possible it will divide votes with War Horse. Yet the lack of a nomination for Spielberg or any of his ensemble cast makes me think this is more of a rote nomination than an actual award. (Possibly not everyone has seen it yet?) The trailers do sometimes seem to be “just about a stupid horse,” as the kids behind us said at a recent movie, though Sherlock Holmes yelling “Be Brave!” does get me every time.
Picture, musical or comedy:
50/50
The Artist ***
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
My Week with Marilyn
Notes: I’m seriously reconsidering how I spent my summer break, looking at this list. I blew off 50/50 despite thoroughly enjoying most of Joseph Gordon Levitt’s work (ahem, G.I. Joe). I missed Bridesmaids. Midnight in Paris, which is my unknowing prediction to win, has been on my to-do list for months, and we almost made it to a 7:00 show the other week before a need for dinner waylaid us. I have high hopes of seeing The Artist and My Week With Marilyn if either ever comes to town, though I’m surprised a bit to see the last one listed in the comedy/musical category. I’m not sure why. What else would it be? Also: WHERE ARE THE MUPPETS?
Actor, drama:
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar *
Michael Fassbender, Shame ***
Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
Brad Pitt, Moneyball *
Notes: I’m not the only one who calls Shame “the Magneto sex movie,” right? DiCaprio was good as J. Edgar, but this seems like Fassbender’s award to lose, as the others all seem to be playing versions of themselves or at least of their expected characters.
Actress, drama:
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo **
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady **
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Notes: I’ve seen none of these and I’m still reasonably certain that Tilda Swinton was the best. If Albert Nobbs had been in wider circulation, this might be Glenn Close’s year; I think Meryl Streep may have worn out her take-on-a-well-known-woman honors with Julie and Julia, which was great but not her best; I think The Help is too controversial (despite many accolades for Davis) and, likewise, Dragon isn’t very friendly viewing; so I’m still voting Swinton. I’ll probably be wrong. I’d cheer for anyone in this category. It’s nice to have many rich and different roles.
Director:
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
George Clooney, The Ides of March
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Notes: Rather stark, isn’t it, the sudden dearth of women in the list? Hazanavicius for the win.
Actor, musical or comedy:
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Brendan Gleeson, The Guard
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50
Ryan Gosling, Crazy, Stupid, Love
Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris
Notes: Tumblr fans aside, I don’t think Ryan Gosling’s going to win because I don’t think anyone expected this to be the role he’d be nominated for. (Same question in drama noms: Drive?). If The Artist is even half as good — and half as dedicated to the craft and art of movies — as it seems, I bet Dujardin.
Actress, musical or comedy:
Jodie Foster, Carnage
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Kate Winslet, Carnage
Notes: I kind of assume this is Charlize Theron, only because Foster v. Winslet leaves no winner from a movie that probably will deserve both awards. I’d love to see Wiig win just for the statement of it — a real comedy getting a big award — but I don’t think this is the year.
Supporting actor:
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Notes: I hear Plummer is wonderful. I expect Mortensen is, too. It’s got to be between them — and it’s interesting that neither movie got any other nods in acting. I would have expected Knightley for Dangerous (or Fassbender) and MacGregor for Beginners (over Gosling for Ides of March).
Supporting actress:
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Notes: Why can’t Jessica Chastain win all the things? (Why isn’t The Debt listed here?)
Foreign language:
The Flowers of War
In the Land of Blood and Honey
The Kid with a Bike
A Separation
The Skin I Live In
Notes: When in doubt, vote Almódovar: Skin.
Animated film:
The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas *
Cars 2
Puss in Boots*
Rango
Notes: Tintin. Though I still say Arthur Christmas was deliciously funny. James McAvoy! Hugh Laurie! C’mon. Also, I’d forgotten Rango was a movie this year.
Screenplay:
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash, The Descendants
Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Moneyball
Notes: My guess? Between Hazanavicius and Payne et al.
Original score:
Ludovic Bource, The Artist
Abel Korzeniowski, W.E.
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Howard Shore, Hugo
John Williams, War Horse
Notes: Wild guess: Reznor and Ross.
Original song:
“Hello Hello” (music by Elton John, lyrics by Bernie Taupin), Gnomeo & Juliet *
“The Keeper” (music and lyrics by Chris Cornell), Machine Gun Preacher
“Lay Your Head Down” (music by Brian Byrne, lyrics by Glenn Close), Albert Nobbs
“The Living Proof” (music by Mary J. Blige, Thomas Newman, Harvey Mason Jr., lyrics by Mary J. Blige, Harvey Mason Jr., Damon Thomas), The Help
“Masterpiece” (music and lyrics by Madonna, Julie Frost, Jimmy Harry), W.E.
Notes: So, I’ve seen Gnomeo & Juliet, and it’s not a score to write home about.
TV later.
* = saw this
** = will see this likely in the next two weeks
*** = still holding out hope this will come to a theater near me